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© 1992 Oxford University Press

RESEARCH-ARTICLE

The Effects of Climatic Change on Development in Wheat: Analysis and Modelling

F. MIGLIETTA1 and J. R. PORTER2,

1Istituto di Analisi ambientale e Telerilevamento applicati all' Agricoltura (IATA) Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Firenze (Florence), Italy
2Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Bristol, AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research Long Ashton Research Station, Bristol, BS18 9AF, UK

To whom correspondence should be addressed.

The effect of an increase in temperature upon wheat development is studied using two models (the AFRC Wheat Phenology Model and the IATA Wheat Phenology Model) which differ in their approach to predicting plant development. The models are used to identify those phenological features of wheat that would make them better suited to a warmer climate by hypothesizing the dates of the latest spring frost and the earliest beginning of the dry season in northern Italy. New ideotypes, adapted to a warmer environment which exhibits an altered risk of a late spring frost and an earlier start of the dry season, are identified on the basis of simulation results. Such information is of interest in defining cultural adaptations to climatic change or for formulating suitable phenotypes for breeding programmes.


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